Objective: On-time graduation is often cited as one of the key outcomes to assess the quality of a specialist training program. This study aimed to determine which factors predict on-time graduation. 
Method: We conducted a retrospective cohort study collecting data of residents in Pediatric Training Program at the Department of Child Health, Dr Sardjito Hospital/Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia, who graduated between 2014 and 2019. Predictors included age, sex, marital status, graduated from a private or public university, working period, type of payment, being first taker or second, grade point average (GPA), score of multiple choice questions (MCQ), in-depth interview, journal reading, case based test, and psychologic test at admission. Measures of on-time graduation was identified as a 4-year graduation success. Multivariable analysis using logistic regression was conducted to identify independent predictors. 
Result: Data form 107 pediatric residents were collected, which consisted of 34 (31.8%) males and 73 (68.2%) females. Of those, 85 (79.4%) were graduated their medical doctor from public universities. Twenty-six (24.3%) residents successfully completed the pediatric residency training program on time. In multivariable analysis, GPA score was independently associated with increased probability of on-time graduation with adjusted RR (95% CI) of 3.41 (1.26-9.25).
Conclusion: The study demonstrates that on-time graduation success can be predicted by the medical doctor’s GPA score.