www.apjph.comwww.apjph.com
...
Original research
Ref Number: APCP-PP-087

A Predictive Nomogram for Severe RSV Infection in Children: A Retrospective, Single-Center Development and Validation Study

Wanyi Li¹, Yingxue Zou¹
1- Children's Hospital, Tianjin University, China
Corresponding Author: Wanyi Li (l18508597272024@163.com)
Abstract Body
Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of severe lower respiratory tract infections in children. This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for early prediction of severe RSV infection by identifying independent risk factors. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed clinical data of children diagnosed with RSV infection, dividing them into severe and non-severe groups. Variable selection was performed using Elastic Net regression combined with clinical knowledge on five multiply imputed datasets. A multivariable logistic regression model was then constructed. Internal validation was conducted using 500 bootstrap resamples to obtain optimism-corrected AUC and calibration slope, which was applied as a shrinkage factor to adjust regression coefficients. Results: Of 2,595 children, 160 were in the severe group and 2,435 in the non-severe group. Five predictors were retained: neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), age, winter onset, hypoxemia, and preterm birth. The pooled AUC was 0.847 (95% CI: 0.833–0.860), and the optimism-corrected AUC after bootstrap validation was 0.843. The calibration slope was 0.975, indicating low overfitting risk. Conclusions: A nomogram incorporating five easily available predictors was developed to predict severe RSV infection in children. Internal validation demonstrated good discrimination and low overfitting, providing a practical tool for early identification of high-risk patients.
Keywords: Single-center development; Rsv infection; Validation
Presentation Type: Original research
Disclaimer: The Views and opinions expressed in the articles are of the authors and not of the journal.
Editor-In-Chief
Journal Office
Mid City Hospital, 3-A Shadman II
Jail Road, Lahore ,Pakistan
Managing Editor
Dr. Intan Juliana Abd Hamid
Support & Help
Assistant Editor
Dr. Sadia Shabbir Hussain
Support & Help
Digital Content Editor
Dr. Khalid Masud
Administrator